A Grand Experiment: Transition Initiative

by Faith Van De Putte

"Imagine a community, imagine a world . . . where how we live nourishes the earth, helps people realize their potential, and creates joy in community."

This is the audacious premise and enticing invitation of the Transition Fidalgo.

This publication is distributed for free at Transition Fidalgo & Friends events. Click here to download  (4.5 MB).

Transition Fidalgo & Friends is a non-profit, all-volunteer organization focusing on strengthening Fidalgo community’s resilience by developing positive, everyday solutions to the challenges of climate change, energy uncertainty, and economic instability. It is part of the international Transition Movement that believes a post carbon, low impact future could be a positive change for humanity. Anacortes is currently taking up this challenge and speakers from Transition Fidalgo will be at Lopez Library, Oct 28, 6.30pm.

“By supporting renewable energy, rebuilding skills, strengthening community, and fostering the local production of food, energy, and goods, we look forward to a way of life more fulfilling, more connected, and more caring of each other and the earth.” states the website of Transition Fidalgo, transitionfidalgo.org.

The thriving Transition Movement is a social experiment. It began when a student group led by Permaculture teacher Rob Hopkins created an “energy descent action plan” in Kinsdale, Ireland. It went beyond the issues of energy supply, to look at across-the-board creative adaptations in the realms of food, farming, education, economy and health and was adopted by their town council. After this experience Mr. Hopkins moved to Totnes, England to work on his doctorate and started Transition Town Totnes. The process has since been

replicated in 397 communities in 34 countries, including Whatcom, Whidbey, and Anacortes.

The Transition movement has been called “engaged optimism” since at its heart is the belief that local organizing can create resilient communities more able to withstand the shocks of our changing resource base and climate. As it says on the Transition USA website “if we wait for the governments it will be too late and too little, if we act as individuals it’ll be too little too late but if we act as communities, it might just be enough just in time.”

What is happening in the 397 communities who are using and adapting the Transition model? They are assessing their current energy dependence, visioning what their community would look like less dependent on fossil fuels and once the vision is in place they "backcast" - that is, work backwards from that time to figure out what must be in place to make the vision real. For example, if the community wants to source 50% of its home heating from managed woodlands in 2030, then it'll need to have planted up all the necessary areas by 2020.

Many of the first steps are modest and based around “relocalization” such as community gardens, seed swaps, sharing of knowledge and skills. Other towns are trying solutions such as creating their own currencies in order to support their local economies. Tackling the issue of building community resilience demands hard innovative work in many sectors and the Transition movement strives to be a platform for a unified community vision. 

Our neighbors at Transition Fidalgo have been busy with hosting informational local dinners, establishing a community garden, publishing a highly successful community cookbook, Serving the Skagit Harvest, as well as a sustainable living guide and working with Skagit County to pass a climate resolution and establish a climate task force.

Come join the discussion. Evelyn Adams and friends of Transition Fidalgo will be at the next Climate

Change lecture series to share their experiences with us. See you at the Lopez Library, Friday Oct 28!

Climate change and implications for San Juan islands

by Chom Greacen

As concentration of carbon dioxide continues to climb and ice caps melt at an alarming rate, we can't help but wonder how our lives in the San Juans will be affected.

At the Climate Change lecture series held last month at the Lopez Library, Vincent Dauciunas shared research findings from leading institutions in the field with a packed room of interested Lopez residents.

A former hi-tech Silicon Valley executive and newly elected member of OPALCO board, Dauciunas delivered an informative presentation the anticipated regional effects of climate change . He drew on modeling work done by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington and more.

The predictions are for drier summers (up to -12 mm/month) and wetter falls and winters (up to +15 mm/month) 20-60 years from now. Temperature are predicted to increase 2-6 degrees Fahrenheit possibly leading to more evaporation and cloud cover.

The combined change in precipitation and temperature will lead to earlier rains, less snow pack and earlier snow melt.

In terms of hydropower generation, the mainstay of WA's electricity supply, reduced snowpack and higher winter rainfall will mean an increase in generation in the winter but a decrease in the summer.

The net change in total output is unclear, due to the uncertainties of regional modeling.

How about impacts on food production? WA Department of Ecology simulated impacts on potatoes, apples and winter wheat yields in eastern WA locations. On average, the predicted yields on these crops will either see minimal impacts. There are caveats, however. The simulations did not take into account the possible extreme temperatures and precipitation. Nor were the possible impacts by pests, weeds and invasive species considered.

As for sea level rise, if you are concerned about your property being under water, Dauciunas's presentation might ease your mind. The expected rise in sea level happens to match exactly the vertical uplift of the tectonic plate on which our islands sit! This means zero sea level change in 2050 if the model is correct!

Despite the surprisingly mild prospects predicted for San Juan islands, Dauciunas still put himself in the “alarmed” category when it comes to concerns about climate change. His concerns were shared by members of the audience in the discussions that followed his talk.

Other less lucky parts of the world already suffer from droughts, floods, pests, diseases and crop failures which may affect us here thanks to the highly integrated nature of our world economy.

Dauciunas concluded by urging us to take steps towards self-sufficiency, proposing a “50-50-50 initiative”, cutting energy usage by 50%, produce 50% of our own energy, and grow 50% of our own food within 15 years.

For more info and presentation download, go to http://islandsenergymatters.blogspot.com/p/climate-change-lecture-series.html. Dauciunas also has his own website: www.energysanjuan.com